世(shi)界(jie)各國(guo)當(dang)然氣(qi)消(xiao)(xiao)費額重要(yao)還可以氛圍(wei)如下類，之中(zhong)工農業(ye)(ye)助燃劑平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)38.2%，鄉鎮(zhen)管(guan)道煤氣(qi)生(sheng)(sheng)活進行(xing)消(xiao)(xiao)費需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量(liang)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)32.5%，來發電容量(liang)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)14.7%，化學工業(ye)(ye)用氣(qi)平(ping)(ping)均(jun)(jun)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)14.6%。隨著時間推(tui)移壞境維(wei)護(hu)自覺(jue)性的(de)促進，中(zhong)國(guo)重點持續推(tui)進擦(ca)洗綠色(se)新(xin)能源技術的(de)在(zai)使(shi)用，201八年(nian)人民(min)政府業(ye)(ye)務統計中(zhong)知(zhi)道要(yao)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)SEO綠色(se)新(xin)能源技術空間結構，擦(ca)洗綠色(se)新(xin)能源技術生(sheng)(sheng)活進行(xing)消(xiao)(xiao)費需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)比(bi)率增(zeng)(zeng)進1.4個同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)漲(zhang)，焦炭生(sheng)(sheng)活進行(xing)消(xiao)(xiao)費需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)比(bi)率驟降1個同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)漲(zhang)，保守估(gu)計天然水(shui)氣(qi)生(sheng)(sheng)活進行(xing)消(xiao)(xiao)費需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)量(liang)會進兩步增(zeng)(zeng)漲(zhang)。

1、如下類需(xu)要(yao)量齊增(zeng)(zeng)，城(cheng)鎮居民用氣和風(feng)能(neng)發電用氣增(zeng)(zeng)漲顯著的

有機(ji)(ji)化(hua)學(xue)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)化(hua)的(de)助(zhu)燃(ran)(ran)劑用(yong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)具(ju)體(ti)(ti)(ti)分(fen)為兩人(ren)方便(bian)，1是(shi)(shi)有機(ji)(ji)化(hua)學(xue)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)化(hua)的(de)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)主將當然植(zhi)物氣(qi)(qi)(qi)作助(zhu)燃(ran)(ran)劑運行(xing)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)量(liang)(liang)，二要中小城區(qu)中工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)鍋爐燃(ran)(ran)燒(shao)、工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)窯爐的(de)運行(xing)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)量(liang)(liang)；鎮(zhen)區(qu)燃(ran)(ran)汽(qi)具(ju)體(ti)(ti)(ti)就是(shi)(shi)中小城區(qu)和(he)鎮(zhen)鄉用(yong)戶用(yong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)量(liang)(liang)、商業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)性的(de)用(yong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)量(liang)(liang)和(he)散(san)熱等公(gong)眾精準服務(wu)用(yong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)；發電(dian)機(ji)(ji)組用(yong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)具(ju)體(ti)(ti)(ti)用(yong)在熱電(dian)聯(lian)產、調(diao)峰(feng)電(dian)廠(chang)和(he)生(sheng)長式生(sheng)物質能源投資(zi)項目中；有機(ji)(ji)化(hua)學(xue)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)具(ju)體(ti)(ti)(ti)是(shi)(shi)以當然植(zhi)物氣(qi)(qi)(qi)為主要原料的(de)有機(ji)(ji)化(hua)學(xue)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)服務(wu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈的(de)用(yong)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)量(liang)(liang)，分(fen)為制作人(ren)工(gong)氨(an)、甲醇、氯氣(qi)(qi)(qi)、氫佛(fo)酸等。

工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)化助燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)劑“煤(mei)(mei)(mei)改(gai)(gai)(gai)氣(qi)(qi)”，能(neng)源(yuan)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)優(you)化。我國能(neng)源(yuan)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)以煤(mei)(mei)(mei)為主，工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)中煤(mei)(mei)(mei)炭占比約(yue)70%，遠(yuan)高(gao)于歐美國家(jia)的15%。為了促進能(neng)源(yuan)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)優(you)化，必須對(dui)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)進行調整，“煤(mei)(mei)(mei)改(gai)(gai)(gai)氣(qi)(qi)”是(shi)重要(yao)(yao)的措施(shi)(shi)。在(zai)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)領域天然氣(qi)(qi)發展(zhan)方(fang)向主要(yao)(yao)有兩個方(fang)面：一是(shi)優(you)化鋼鐵、陶瓷、玻璃、石化、有色等(deng)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)。二(er)是(shi)改(gai)(gai)(gai)善城(cheng)市中不同工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)鍋(guo)(guo)爐、窯爐的燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)(gou)。《天然氣(qi)(qi)發展(zhan)十三(san)(san)五規劃》提(ti)出，以京津(jin)冀、長三(san)(san)角(jiao)(jiao)、珠三(san)(san)角(jiao)(jiao)、東北地區為重點(dian)(dian)，推(tui)(tui)進重點(dian)(dian)城(cheng)市“煤(mei)(mei)(mei)改(gai)(gai)(gai)氣(qi)(qi)”工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程，擴大(da)城(cheng)市高(gao)污(wu)染燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)禁燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)區范(fan)圍，大(da)力(li)推(tui)(tui)進天然氣(qi)(qi)替代(dai)步伐，替代(dai)管(guan)網覆蓋范(fan)圍內的燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)鍋(guo)(guo)爐、工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)窯爐、燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)設(she)施(shi)(shi)用煤(mei)(mei)(mei)和散煤(mei)(mei)(mei)。《中國天然氣(qi)(qi)發展(zhan)報告（2016）》白皮書預計(ji)，到(dao)2020年天然氣(qi)(qi)占工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)消(xiao)費量比例由現在(zai)的10%提(ti)高(gao)到(dao)15%，2030年達(da)到(dao)25%。2016年工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)用氣(qi)(qi)量577億立(li)方(fang)米，預計(ji)2020年工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)用氣(qi)(qi)需(xu)求將達(da)到(dao)900億立(li)方(fang)米，年復(fu)合增速10%以上。

還有城市化(hua)進程有序力促力促，汽(qi)化(hua)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)人(ren)口可觀增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)大。2016年(nian)(nian)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)城鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)率達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)57%，預計2020年(nian)(nian)達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)60%，2030年(nian)(nian)達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)70%。隨著城鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)化(hua)進程穩步(bu)推(tui)進，城鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)管道(dao)和用(yong)(yong)氣(qi)(qi)人(ren)口顯著增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)，過(guo)去10年(nian)(nian)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)管道(dao)長(chang)度復(fu)合(he)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速17%，氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)人(ren)口數(shu)量(liang)復(fu)合(he)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速15%，城市天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)供應量(liang)復(fu)合(he)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速17.5%。未來(lai)城鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量(liang)用(yong)(yong)氣(qi)(qi)將主要來(lai)自三(san)個方面(mian)：一是(shi)(shi)進一步(bu)提(ti)升(sheng)城鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)居民氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)水平，預計2020年(nian)(nian)達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)50%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)，2030年(nian)(nian)達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)65%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)；二是(shi)(shi)推(tui)進天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)供暖(nuan)，在我(wo)國(guo)(guo)南(nan)方地區有序推(tui)進天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)供暖(nuan)工程，提(ti)高公(gong)共服務(wu)水平；三(san)是(shi)(shi)推(tui)進重點區域的(de)(de)氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)，尤其是(shi)(shi)京(jing)津冀和東北地區，逐(zhu)漸拋(pao)棄(qi)散(san)煤(mei)(mei)供暖(nuan)的(de)(de)方式，加(jia)快(kuai)使用(yong)(yong)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)作(zuo)(zuo)為供暖(nuan)原料。2017年(nian)(nian)政府工作(zuo)(zuo)報告中(zhong)提(ti)出，今年(nian)(nian)將全(quan)面(mian)實施散(san)煤(mei)(mei)綜(zong)合(he)治理，推(tui)進北方地區冬季清潔(jie)取暖(nuan)，完(wan)成以(yi)電代(dai)煤(mei)(mei)、以(yi)氣(qi)(qi)代(dai)煤(mei)(mei)300萬戶(hu)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)。《天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)發(fa)展十三(san)五規劃》提(ti)出氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)率要從(cong)2015年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)43%提(ti)高到(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)57%，天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)人(ren)口預計達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)4.7億，用(yong)(yong)氣(qi)(qi)量(liang)將從(cong)207億立方米增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)到(dao)360億立方米，城鎮(zhen)(zhen)(zhen)燃料用(yong)(yong)氣(qi)(qi)領域天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)消費量(liang)到(dao)2020年(nian)(nian)復(fu)合(he)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速10%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)(shang)。

氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)腦(nao)裝機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)較(jiao)不穩定性(xing)增長期(qi)，產(chan)業(ye)的(de)趨(qu)勢證策(ce)進行自然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠服務業(ye)加(jia)(jia)(jia)速度趨(qu)勢。2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)，我國(guo)社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)達(da)(da)到5.92萬億千(qian)瓦時(shi)，同比(bi)(bi)增長6.7%，天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)裝機(ji)6637萬千(qian)瓦，占(zhan)全國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)裝機(ji)量(liang)(liang)3%，燃氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)約(yue)為1658億千(qian)瓦，占(zhan)全國(guo)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)2.9%。2017年(nian)(nian)(nian)政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)工(gong)作(zuo)報(bao)告中(zhong)(zhong)提出，今(jin)年(nian)(nian)(nian)要淘汰、停建、緩建煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)5000萬千(qian)瓦以(yi)(yi)(yi)上(shang)，為清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展留下空間。由于(yu)(yu)燃氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)相(xiang)比(bi)(bi)較(jiao)于(yu)(yu)燃煤(mei)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)不具有經(jing)濟性(xing)，以(yi)(yi)(yi)當前華東地區天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)工(gong)業(ye)價格(ge)3.72元(yuan)/立(li)(li)方(fang)米(mi)，發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)熱量(liang)(liang)5500大(da)卡/千(qian)克動(dong)力(li)煤(mei)價格(ge)600元(yuan)/噸左右(you)計算，氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成本和上(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價分(fen)(fen)(fen)別約(yue)是煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)2.5倍和2倍。未來天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)主(zhu)要有三(san)個(ge)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展方(fang)向：一是加(jia)(jia)(jia)快建設天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)調峰電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站，二(er)是大(da)力(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源項目(mu)(mu)，三(san)是發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)產(chan)，其中(zhong)(zhong)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源項目(mu)(mu)最受關注(zhu)。根(gen)據(ju)中(zhong)(zhong)投(tou)顧(gu)問統計數據(ju)，截至(zhi)2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)4月，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)已建成投(tou)產(chan)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源項目(mu)(mu)達(da)(da)到46個(ge)，主(zhu)要分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)在上(shang)海(hai)、北京、長沙、廣(guang)州等大(da)中(zhong)(zhong)型城市，總計裝機(ji)容量(liang)(liang)達(da)(da)291萬千(qian)瓦。過(guo)(guo)去幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)由于(yu)(yu)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)價上(shang)調，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供需寬(kuan)松，氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)設備(bei)利用小時(shi)數連年(nian)(nian)(nian)下降，2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)以(yi)(yi)(yi)來，受氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)價下調影響，多(duo)個(ge)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源項目(mu)(mu)運行良好，政(zheng)(zheng)府(fu)出臺(tai)相(xiang)關分(fen)(fen)(fen)布(bu)(bu)式(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源補貼政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)，引導行業(ye)加(jia)(jia)(jia)速發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展。天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展十三(san)五(wu)規(gui)劃提出，2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)達(da)(da)到1.1億千(qian)瓦以(yi)(yi)(yi)上(shang)，占(zhan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)總裝機(ji)比(bi)(bi)例(li)超過(guo)(guo)5%。《中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展報(bao)告（2016）》白(bai)皮(pi)書提出，到2030年(nian)(nian)(nian)，天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)規(gui)模(mo)占(zhan)總裝機(ji)比(bi)(bi)例(li)超過(guo)(guo)10%。《電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)展“十三(san)五(wu)”規(gui)劃》明確了天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)建設目(mu)(mu)標(biao)，計劃于(yu)(yu)2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)現氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)超過(guo)(guo)5%，規(gui)模(mo)達(da)(da)110GW以(yi)(yi)(yi)上(shang)，其中(zhong)(zhong)熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)產(chan)15GW。中(zhong)(zhong)石油經(jing)濟技(ji)術研究院預測，到2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)用氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)量(liang)(liang)將從2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)321億立(li)(li)方(fang)米(mi)增加(jia)(jia)(jia)到605億立(li)(li)方(fang)米(mi)，2025年(nian)(nian)(nian)達(da)(da)到948億立(li)(li)方(fang)米(mi)，預計年(nian)(nian)(nian)復合增速13.5%。

我國(guo)(guo)天然冰水氣(qi)(qi)是(shi)醫(yi)藥化(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)新材(cai)料(liao)材(cai)料(liao)重點用(yong)作生產加(jia)工(gong)(gong)(gong)銷售(shou)尿素(su)溶(rong)液、純(chun)堿(jian)和甲(jia)醇。天然冰水氣(qi)(qi)在醫(yi)藥化(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)新材(cai)料(liao)企業(ye)生產加(jia)工(gong)(gong)(gong)銷售(shou)費(fei)用(yong)的比例(li)(li)為(wei)較高(gao)，其中的氮肥占(zhan)(zhan)40-70%，純(chun)堿(jian)占(zhan)(zhan)30%，甲(jia)醇占(zhan)(zhan)40%.由于(yu)(yu)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)對化(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)天然氣(qi)(qi)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)調(diao)整(zheng)，優惠補(bu)貼政策相(xiang)繼取消(xiao)，天然氣(qi)(qi)制尿素(su)、純(chun)堿(jian)和甲(jia)醇的成(cheng)本(ben)抬高(gao)，失去競爭(zheng)優勢。以尿素(su)行(xing)業(ye)為(wei)例(li)(li)，2016年由于(yu)(yu)尿素(su)成(cheng)本(ben)抬高(gao)，產品價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)下降，行(xing)業(ye)盈利空間變窄，落后產能得以淘汰，行(xing)業(ye)供需(xu)關系有所緩(huan)解。盡管氣(qi)(qi)頭尿素(su)成(cheng)本(ben)較高(gao)，并不具有競爭(zheng)優勢，但在國(guo)(guo)家(jia)進行(xing)供給側改革，嚴(yan)格(ge)(ge)(ge)限制尿素(su)新增產能以及(ji)尿素(su)面臨國(guo)(guo)內(nei)剛需(xu)和出口需(xu)求的情況(kuang)下，尿素(su)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)回升，氣(qi)(qi)頭尿素(su)開工(gong)(gong)(gong)率有所提高(gao)，化(hua)(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)用(yong)氣(qi)(qi)也有望保持平穩。

2、自然氣干勁車船發展壯大環境大

交(jiao)通管(guan)理用(yong)氣(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)值持續增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，純天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)管(guan)道各類汽(qi)(qi)車保要量(liang)(liang)不(bu)穩定(ding)性增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)強。2016年，交(jiao)通運輸行(xing)業(ye)天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)消費量(liang)(liang)達到267億(yi)立(li)方米，占全國天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)總消費量(liang)(liang)的13.3%。2015年天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)動力車達到500萬輛，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)13.4%。由于經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)放緩、油(you)(you)價下跌，天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)相對成(cheng)品油(you)(you)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)優勢不(bu)明顯(xian)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速有所放緩。在政策推(tui)動，經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)回暖(nuan)，油(you)(you)價上漲下，天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)汽(qi)(qi)車保有量(liang)(liang)有望進一(yi)步增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，預計到2020年天(tian)(tian)(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)汽(qi)(qi)車用(yong)氣(qi)量(liang)(liang)達到363億(yi)立(li)方米，年復合增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速6%。

LNG非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)加(jia)汽(qi)站投建(jian)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)緩慢，在未來(lai)趨勢極可能較快。按照其(qi)卓創資迅總計數器據，2017年東(dong)北內(nei)陸(lu)地區(qu)(qu)LNG非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)加(jia)汽(qi)站2460座(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率提升(sheng)196個，從(cong)區(qu)(qu)地理分布來(lai)上(shang)看，冀中及蘇(su)北沿海內(nei)陸(lu)地區(qu)(qu)內(nei)陸(lu)地區(qu)(qu)較多；從(cong)省分來(lai)瞧，四(si)川、安徽、烏魯木(mu)齊較多，各(ge)舉四(si)川LNG非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)加(jia)汽(qi)站295座(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，占(zhan)到(dao)比(bi)例12%，增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.1%；安徽LNG非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)加(jia)汽(qi)站240座(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，占(zhan)到(dao)比(bi)例10%，增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.3%，烏魯木(mu)齊LNG非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)加(jia)汽(qi)站198座(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，占(zhan)到(dao)比(bi)例8%。非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)趨勢13五規(gui)劃中談及，截至到(dao)202007年底，東(dong)北內(nei)陸(lu)地區(qu)(qu)成立(li) 縮短非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)/煤氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)（CNG/LNG）非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)加(jia)汽(qi)站6500座(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，到(dao)20年要成立(li) 12000座(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)(zuo)，年黏結增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)13%，LNG非(fei)(fei)天(tian)燃(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)加(jia)汽(qi)站極可能較快投建(jian)。

本身的(de)氣(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)動機車(che)(che)綠色環境保(bao)護(hu)優(you)越性比(bi)較大(da)，合理快速發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)載貨重卡。本身的(de)氣(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)動機車(che)(che)綠色環境保(bao)護(hu)優(you)越性更(geng)加(jia)清晰可見，使用(yong)的(de)本身的(de)氣(qi)(qi)對(dui)(dui)于主要(yao)(yao)生物(wu)質(zhi)的(de)各類氣(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)相對(dui)(dui)比(bi)于許多(duo)主要(yao)(yao)生物(wu)質(zhi)，各類氣(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)尾氣(qi)(qi)排放風險物(wu)質(zhi)幅度變少，至(zhi)少NO2，CO2含量分別降低98%和30%，PM2.5降低93%，聲功率僅為(wei)燃油發(fa)(fa)動機的(de)36%。《中國天(tian)然氣(qi)(qi)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)白皮書》預計2020年實(shi)現氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)車(che)(che)輛(liang)(liang)1000萬(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，到2030年實(shi)現氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)車(che)(che)輛(liang)(liang)1400萬(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，重點推(tui)進公路網絡完(wan)善(shan)、物(wu)流(liu)發(fa)(fa)達地區使用(yong)LNG重卡，在港口、物(wu)流(liu)園區、礦區、廠(chang)區等有限(xian)使用(yong)天(tian)然氣(qi)(qi)汽車(che)(che)。

“油(you)(you)改(gai)(gai)氣(qi)”關停，在(zai)(zai)未來(lai)壯(zhuang)大當下管道煤氣(qi)氣(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)。過往幾(ji)年的(de)時(shi)候國(guo)家清(qing)(qing)障車(che)(che)(che)(che)車(che)(che)(che)(che)常進(jin)行“油(you)(you)改(gai)(gai)氣(qi)”具(ju)體方法(fa)，在(zai)(zai)原氣(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)增(zeng)添純液化石(shi)油(you)(you)氣(qi)燃油(you)(you)系(xi)統，次(ci)性(xing)雜費在(zai)(zai)6-100萬(wan)多相互。有時(shi)候“油(you)(you)改(gai)(gai)氣(qi)”的(de)運(yun)用(yong)的(de)機(ji)高鐵(tie)火車(che)(che)(che)(che)工(gong)程(cheng)維修管道煤氣(qi)專用(yong)裝臵(ge)或(huo)缺能夠的(de)質量(liang)水(shui)平保障機(ji)制(zhi)及驗測(ce)等現(xian)象，是無法(fa)切(qie)實(shi)(shi)保障再(zai)用(yong)清(qing)(qing)障車(che)(che)(che)(che)車(che)(che)(che)(che)“油(you)(you)改(gai)(gai)氣(qi)”機(ji)高鐵(tie)火車(che)(che)(che)(che)工(gong)程(cheng)維修的(de)安(an)(an)會耐熱性(xing)及范法(fa)的(de)運(yun)用(yong)，201幾(ji)年質量(liang)檢(jian)驗國(guo)家安(an)(an)會總局公(gong)布《有關切(qie)實(shi)(shi)一個腳(jiao)印(yin)切(qie)實(shi)(shi)加(jia)強(qiang)清(qing)(qing)障車(che)(che)(che)(che)車(che)(che)(che)(che)“油(you)(you)改(gai)(gai)氣(qi)”安(an)(an)會安(an)(an)全產(chan)量(liang)加(jia)工(gong)運(yun)行的(de)檢(jian)查指導(dao)建議（征詢建議稿）》，明(ming)確(que)提(ti)出(chu)為(wei)止再(zai)用(yong)清(qing)(qing)障車(che)(che)(che)(che)車(che)(che)(che)(che)“油(you)(you)改(gai)(gai)氣(qi)”，提(ti)高對已(yi)改(gai)(gai)造(zao)機(ji)高鐵(tie)火車(che)(che)(che)(che)工(gong)程(cheng)維修的(de)監(jian)督實(shi)(shi)效，支持(chi)系(xi)統氣(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)產(chan)量(liang)加(jia)工(gong)工(gong)業企(qi)業規劃設計產(chan)量(liang)加(jia)工(gong)當下管道煤氣(qi)氣(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)。

汽油(you)價(jia)(jia)格持續上升，非煤氣(qi)做為(wei)(wei)助(zhu)燃(ran)劑提(ti)供區域費用(yong)效益(yi)。自2014年油(you)價(jia)(jia)大跌以來，汽柴油(you)價(jia)(jia)格大幅下降，經(jing)濟(ji)性(xing)有(you)所提(ti)升。隨著未來油(you)價(jia)(jia)回(hui)升，天然(ran)氣(qi)作為(wei)(wei)清潔能(neng)源經(jing)濟(ji)性(xing)會越(yue)來越(yue)明(ming)顯，就2017年4月份(fen)而言，汽油(you)、柴油(you)、車(che)用(yong)天然(ran)氣(qi)價(jia)(jia)格分別為(wei)(wei)0.19、0.16、0.15元/百(bai)萬(wan)英(ying)熱單位(wei)，天然(ran)氣(qi)作為(wei)(wei)替代能(neng)源具備(bei)經(jing)濟(ji)性(xing)。

各國(guo)(guo)飛機“油改(gai)氣(qi)”經(jing)驗(yan)豐(feng)富，LNG動(dong)(dong)力(li)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)市(shi)場空(kong)間巨大。我國(guo)(guo)LNG動(dong)(dong)力(li)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)起步較(jiao)晚(wan)，由于新(xin)建LNG動(dong)(dong)力(li)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)成本(ben)和技術要求(qiu)較(jiao)高(gao)，我國(guo)(guo)普遍以改(gai)造(zao)(zao)為主，使(shi)用(yong)(yong)LNG和柴油混合動(dong)(dong)力(li)。2010年我國(guo)(guo)首艘LNG柴油混合動(dong)(dong)力(li)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)成功下(xia)水(shui)，至今完(wan)成改(gai)造(zao)(zao)的船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)舶(bo)(bo)接(jie)近200艘，積累了(le)豐(feng)富的“油改(gai)氣(qi)”經(jing)驗(yan)。目前(qian)我國(guo)(guo)內河(he)正常使(shi)用(yong)(yong)的LNG加注(zhu)(zhu)站只有3座，嚴(yan)重影(ying)響了(le)內河(he)LNG船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)的使(shi)用(yong)(yong)，預(yu)計未來我國(guo)(guo)將建設更多的水(shui)上(shang)(shang)加注(zhu)(zhu)站以滿足(zu)需(xu)求(qiu)。交通(tong)運(yun)輸(shu)部在(zai)《推進水(shui)運(yun)行業應用(yong)(yong)液化(hua)天然(ran)氣(qi)的指導意見》中(zhong)提出，到2020年，內河(he)運(yun)輸(shu)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)舶(bo)(bo)能源消耗中(zhong)LNG的比(bi)例需(xu)達(da)到10%以上(shang)(shang)。《中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)天然(ran)氣(qi)發展(zhan)白皮書》預(yu)計2020年實現(xian)氣(qi)化(hua)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)舶(bo)(bo)6萬艘，到2030年實現(xian)氣(qi)化(hua)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)舶(bo)(bo)8萬艘，LNG動(dong)(dong)力(li)船(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)發展(zhan)空(kong)間巨大。